Welcome to a brand new week traders! I did a full analysis of the latest CFTC COT Report for you and you can find it down below! I will be doing a lot of focusing on my trade plan this week and Forex testing my strategy. I encourage you to do the same. Practice makes a winning trader and that's pretty much about it. I recommend that any of you who are serious about learning Supply and Demand from someone I consider to be the best in the business, Alfonso Moreno, sign up at www.set-and-forget.com and join me and many others on our journey to learn how the market really moves. Take a look at my updated charts below for a sample of how we are killing it in the community! You can have it all if you trade like the institutions do. Money, freedom, the ability to travel anywhere at any time, nice homes and fast cars. All it takes is dedication and hard work! Don't you just love trading? You can be anywhere in the world and still be able to make $$$, but only if you trade alongside the institutions with Supply & Demand! The inspirational shots to the left are courtesy of @fiiyat on Instagram. Great profile you should follow! 
SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
$USD OVERVIEW (DAILY)
Hey fellow traders, October is reaching it's midway point and as expected, we are seeing a shift of sentiment when it comes to the commodity currencies. As mentioned on last weeks article, we wanted to see a continuation of the momentum that was beginning to form on the AUD, CAD, & NZD as they were all hitting HTF zones and the technical's were suggesting a further correction. Well this latest report was not a disappointment when looking for confluence with what our analysis was telling us. This last reports biggest mover, in terms of positions by the institutions, was the NZDUSD. With this move a change in sentiment has happened from bearish to bullish. I've been monitoring Oil and Gold closely for signs of a reversal and confluence with these pairs and it seems everything is looking as it should. With the Oil strength we see the CAD, AUD and NZD continue to strengthen and Gold has been building momentum to the upside as well as the institutions continue to build up long positions with this latest report having a dramatic change I'd like to point out below. So lets take a look at the latest CFTC report data below as well as a look into Gold and Oil.
GOLD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are BULLISH.
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds increased longs from 191k to 203k while reducing their shorts from 104k to 86k increasing their long exposure from 65% to 70% in the process. A steady increase in longs has be under way since mid September.
On the charts: Price hit a 3MN DZ and is reacting from it as it slowly builds momentum to shift to the upside. The WK Chart clearly shows a double bottom with Daily WOW longs in play. The strong bullish move from the institutions began with the first D WOW Long being triggered.
OIL => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are BULLISH.
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds slightly decreased their longs and decreased their shorts as well. In the process they shifted long exposure up 1 percent to 69%. Oil has been steadily increasing it;s bullishness since mid August.
On the charts: This increase in the bullishness began after we hit a WK DZ within the 3MN DZ price is reacting from now. A definite shift in momentum is under way here and we have a nice WK WOW DZ @ 42.18 that could work out well, if price decides to drop again.
US DOLLAR => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds closed about 5k of their longs and added about 1.5k to their shorts. Last weeks article mentioned how we could expect to see this move from the big boys if the bearish pressure continued on the USD. The Commercials decreased their exposure to the long side dramatically by increasing it from 9% to 19%, double the exposure it had the previous week.
On the charts: Tested MN Supply is in control at the moment and tested WK Supply as well. Technically, the force of price is to the downside, CFTC data confluence is starting to be seen.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds increased longs from 41k to 42k and closed out more shorts for profits, from 82k to 75k. Long exposure now sits at 36% up 2% from the previous report. Total net positions are slowly becoming more neutral since the end of September, where we had a Daily WOW long being triggered. If a larger retrace into the 0.76's is to occur, we need to see more longs being added and shorts being covered. Longs, at this point, are not being aggressively added to.
On the charts: We hit a 3MN DZ, the WK has a potential WK WOW DZ below, MN bullish engulf, all signals price could move to 0.7587 (MN Supply). Right now MN descending TL is being hit, so first thing is price needs to remove this barrier before a continuation can occur.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Institutions: Hedge funds closed out some longs from 64k to 62k and also reduced shorts from 29k to 28k. Exposure sits at the same levels as previous week. Interesting to note here is that if a bigger retrace was to be expected, we would be seeing a bigger increase in shorts happening, so far that is not the case. Total position exposure has been decreasing and about 22k in longs have been closed for profits.
On the charts: Price is hitting a tested 3MN SZ and has penetrated a little deeper into it. A move to the downside towards the MN DZ @ 1.2488 seems very reasonable at this point. On the WK, a DZ was taken out validating the WK WOW SZ @ 1.3226 but we would need the WK DZ @ 1.2779 to be hit to make the SZ a 2:1 move away.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed out more longs for profits and also reduced shorts from 12k to 10k. Long exposure dropped from 57% to 55% in the process.Net positions sit at 2.3k to the long side.
On the charts: Price is reacting to the descending TL on the MN chart and also the WK SZ. Some consolidation can easily continue here.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds increased their longs from 65k to 71k and also reduced shorts from 154k to 151k, increasing long exposure in the process from 30% to 32%. This is what we would want to see more of if price was to start heading higher. Net positions decreased from -88k to -80k but overall short bias still holding fairly well.
On the charts: The 3MN chart has broken through 2 demand zones and has hit a MN CP DZ after the breaks, so a rally back upwards is suggested on the charts. But the question is, how high up? The 3MN SZ @ 1.2097 would be the logical target for the move up and if we see longs continue to be added to and possibly some shorts being covered on the way up. It seems at the moment that the WK SZ @ 1.1378 is doing a great job of holding price down.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are NEUTRALbiased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed more longs as we reacted to the used up WK DZ while the shorts stayed the same. Short exposure increased from 52% to 54% in the process. Still Neutral bias IMO.
On the charts: 3MN tested Demand is in control as price dropped further into the zone. Within this zone we have a MN bullish engulfing candle and a MN WOW DZ nested within it. The MN DZ though never consolidated away from the zone but price is reacting to it nonetheless. Tested WK Demand is holding price at the moment. Question is, for how long?
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are NEUTRALbiased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed more long for profit reducing them from 56k to 51k while the shorts remained the same, relatively. During this reaction from the MN used up SZ, if price were to drop further down, we would want to see shorts being added alongside the longs being closed out. So far, for the last three weeks, shorts have hardly changed. Let's keep notice of this important piece of info.
On the charts: Price just broke through three 3MN SZ's on this last rally up and hit a MN used up SZ in the 125's. Not exactly the type of SZ that causes a reversal of trend but enough to cause a retrace on the WK chart to tested Demand. So a move further down is possible, but we would want to see more shorts being increased and more longs being covered as a sign that this indeed is about to happen. WK DZ holding price so far.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds kept longs the same and closed about 2k in shorts for profits. Long exposure now crossed the 50% threshold and moved to 51% with a slight bullish bias. We have seen a shift from a short bias to now a neutral bias on the Kiwi. This could be in preparation for a rally back up in price. The charts certainly back this thesis.
On the charts: Price hit a MN CP DZ after the 3MN chart dropped and broke through 2 3MN DZ's and 1 6MN DZ. A possible rally up toward the 3MN CP SZ @ 0.7472 could very likely happen and with the hedge funds positions switching from short biased to a neutral bias, if we see consolidation between WK Supply @ 0.7042 and the WK WOW DZ @ 0.6404, combined with an increase in long positions and a decrease in shorts, we could very much expect a larger rally into the 74's. Keeping my eye on this potential mover!
That's the report for this week traders, and it seems the commodity currencies continue to display traits necessary in preparation for a reversal of momentum... but, so far all we see is mainly profits being taken by the institutions. If we start to the positions being added in the direction of the new momentum being formed and exposure continue to to become more neutral and then biased toward the momentum direction, then and only then can we be more secure in committing to a longer term direction in price. As you can see, Gold and Oil has already establish their long biases and the charts have followed suit with establishing some great reversal patterns and some great looking WK WOW's being formed.
As we continue to monitor the currencies pairs, I will be watching for confirmation from the institutions that indeed a larger retrace is to happen on the NZD, AUD, and CAD and until then i will continue to trade the charts being aware that stops will have to be managed closely at HTF zones. Once the bias clearly shifts, I will be more inclined to let my positions ride a little longer and will leave more breathing room. Hope your enjoying your weekend and preparing for the upcoming night of costumes and candy!
Kevin
GOLD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are BULLISH.
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds increased longs from 191k to 203k while reducing their shorts from 104k to 86k increasing their long exposure from 65% to 70% in the process. A steady increase in longs has be under way since mid September.
On the charts: Price hit a 3MN DZ and is reacting from it as it slowly builds momentum to shift to the upside. The WK Chart clearly shows a double bottom with Daily WOW longs in play. The strong bullish move from the institutions began with the first D WOW Long being triggered.
OIL => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are BULLISH.
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds slightly decreased their longs and decreased their shorts as well. In the process they shifted long exposure up 1 percent to 69%. Oil has been steadily increasing it;s bullishness since mid August.
On the charts: This increase in the bullishness began after we hit a WK DZ within the 3MN DZ price is reacting from now. A definite shift in momentum is under way here and we have a nice WK WOW DZ @ 42.18 that could work out well, if price decides to drop again.
US DOLLAR => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds closed about 5k of their longs and added about 1.5k to their shorts. Last weeks article mentioned how we could expect to see this move from the big boys if the bearish pressure continued on the USD. The Commercials decreased their exposure to the long side dramatically by increasing it from 9% to 19%, double the exposure it had the previous week.
On the charts: Tested MN Supply is in control at the moment and tested WK Supply as well. Technically, the force of price is to the downside, CFTC data confluence is starting to be seen.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Institutional Positions: Hedge funds increased longs from 41k to 42k and closed out more shorts for profits, from 82k to 75k. Long exposure now sits at 36% up 2% from the previous report. Total net positions are slowly becoming more neutral since the end of September, where we had a Daily WOW long being triggered. If a larger retrace into the 0.76's is to occur, we need to see more longs being added and shorts being covered. Longs, at this point, are not being aggressively added to.
On the charts: We hit a 3MN DZ, the WK has a potential WK WOW DZ below, MN bullish engulf, all signals price could move to 0.7587 (MN Supply). Right now MN descending TL is being hit, so first thing is price needs to remove this barrier before a continuation can occur.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Institutions: Hedge funds closed out some longs from 64k to 62k and also reduced shorts from 29k to 28k. Exposure sits at the same levels as previous week. Interesting to note here is that if a bigger retrace was to be expected, we would be seeing a bigger increase in shorts happening, so far that is not the case. Total position exposure has been decreasing and about 22k in longs have been closed for profits.
On the charts: Price is hitting a tested 3MN SZ and has penetrated a little deeper into it. A move to the downside towards the MN DZ @ 1.2488 seems very reasonable at this point. On the WK, a DZ was taken out validating the WK WOW SZ @ 1.3226 but we would need the WK DZ @ 1.2779 to be hit to make the SZ a 2:1 move away.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed out more longs for profits and also reduced shorts from 12k to 10k. Long exposure dropped from 57% to 55% in the process.Net positions sit at 2.3k to the long side.
On the charts: Price is reacting to the descending TL on the MN chart and also the WK SZ. Some consolidation can easily continue here.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds increased their longs from 65k to 71k and also reduced shorts from 154k to 151k, increasing long exposure in the process from 30% to 32%. This is what we would want to see more of if price was to start heading higher. Net positions decreased from -88k to -80k but overall short bias still holding fairly well.
On the charts: The 3MN chart has broken through 2 demand zones and has hit a MN CP DZ after the breaks, so a rally back upwards is suggested on the charts. But the question is, how high up? The 3MN SZ @ 1.2097 would be the logical target for the move up and if we see longs continue to be added to and possibly some shorts being covered on the way up. It seems at the moment that the WK SZ @ 1.1378 is doing a great job of holding price down.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are NEUTRALbiased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed more longs as we reacted to the used up WK DZ while the shorts stayed the same. Short exposure increased from 52% to 54% in the process. Still Neutral bias IMO.
On the charts: 3MN tested Demand is in control as price dropped further into the zone. Within this zone we have a MN bullish engulfing candle and a MN WOW DZ nested within it. The MN DZ though never consolidated away from the zone but price is reacting to it nonetheless. Tested WK Demand is holding price at the moment. Question is, for how long?
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are NEUTRALbiased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds closed more long for profit reducing them from 56k to 51k while the shorts remained the same, relatively. During this reaction from the MN used up SZ, if price were to drop further down, we would want to see shorts being added alongside the longs being closed out. So far, for the last three weeks, shorts have hardly changed. Let's keep notice of this important piece of info.
On the charts: Price just broke through three 3MN SZ's on this last rally up and hit a MN used up SZ in the 125's. Not exactly the type of SZ that causes a reversal of trend but enough to cause a retrace on the WK chart to tested Demand. So a move further down is possible, but we would want to see more shorts being increased and more longs being covered as a sign that this indeed is about to happen. WK DZ holding price so far.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Institutions: Hedge funds kept longs the same and closed about 2k in shorts for profits. Long exposure now crossed the 50% threshold and moved to 51% with a slight bullish bias. We have seen a shift from a short bias to now a neutral bias on the Kiwi. This could be in preparation for a rally back up in price. The charts certainly back this thesis.
On the charts: Price hit a MN CP DZ after the 3MN chart dropped and broke through 2 3MN DZ's and 1 6MN DZ. A possible rally up toward the 3MN CP SZ @ 0.7472 could very likely happen and with the hedge funds positions switching from short biased to a neutral bias, if we see consolidation between WK Supply @ 0.7042 and the WK WOW DZ @ 0.6404, combined with an increase in long positions and a decrease in shorts, we could very much expect a larger rally into the 74's. Keeping my eye on this potential mover!
That's the report for this week traders, and it seems the commodity currencies continue to display traits necessary in preparation for a reversal of momentum... but, so far all we see is mainly profits being taken by the institutions. If we start to the positions being added in the direction of the new momentum being formed and exposure continue to to become more neutral and then biased toward the momentum direction, then and only then can we be more secure in committing to a longer term direction in price. As you can see, Gold and Oil has already establish their long biases and the charts have followed suit with establishing some great reversal patterns and some great looking WK WOW's being formed.
As we continue to monitor the currencies pairs, I will be watching for confirmation from the institutions that indeed a larger retrace is to happen on the NZD, AUD, and CAD and until then i will continue to trade the charts being aware that stops will have to be managed closely at HTF zones. Once the bias clearly shifts, I will be more inclined to let my positions ride a little longer and will leave more breathing room. Hope your enjoying your weekend and preparing for the upcoming night of costumes and candy!
Kevin
AUDUSD -> Commitmen Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
THE SETUP: ->
Video Link ==>
https://gyazo.com/321531d744dd883e3fb4133608f596c3
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP: ->
https://gyazo.com/321531d744dd883e3fb4133608f596c3
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional tradersare SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and down trend on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes:
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
https://gyazo.com/e6462b808e0760e6142f501397fa9fda
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISHNotes:
THE SETUP:
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==> 
https://gyazo.com/e9f272b57e10e0c405897182e8d39b43
https://gyazo.com/d565cbf1795ea175746e02d2cff45839
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes:
THE SETUP:
https://gyazo.com/d61632b6308565e4ab3b990c2f9ea4cd
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes:
THE SETUP:
https://gyazo.com/d1fd69a1e2d15b5155d61d121fe6a326
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
THE SETUP: LONG @ 0.7365, SL @ 0.7306, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==>
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
